Approaching Intention Prediction of Orbital Maneuver Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network
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Abstract:
The complexity of the modern space environment is increasing dramatically under the condition of informatization. Thus, it is difficult for ground operators to process a large amount of information and recognize the approaching intention of unknown objects in a short time. A dynamic Bayesian network model combined with fuzzy theory and experts’ experience is designed to help operators recognize the approaching intention quickly and systemically. Compared with the static Bayesian network (SBN), the dynamic Bayesian network is more practical in recognizing the intention of multiple time slices and predicting the future trends through successive probabilities calculation, which is suitable for rapidly changing environment in space. Numerical examples show that the proposed method of intention prediction is feasible and effective.
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This work was supported by the Basic Research Project of the Science and Technology on Complex Electronic System Simulation Laboratory (No.DXZT-JC-ZZ-2020-012), the Project of the Qian Xuesen Laboratory of Space Technology of the China Academy of Space Technology, the Projects(Nos.020214, D030307) and the Fundamental Research Foundation of the Central Universities (No.3072022TS0401).
CHEN Shibo, LI Jun, XIE Yaen, WU Xiande, LENG Shuhang, YANG Ruochu. Approaching Intention Prediction of Orbital Maneuver Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network[J]. Transactions of Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics,2023,(4):460-471